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Column: As Hunter digs in, Republicans wring hands

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Republicans are walking on eggshells around Rep. Duncan Hunter.

His future and the fate of his East County district are uncertain, but Hunter is digging in.

Following a wild string of developments, the Alpine Republican several days ago felt compelled to say something that seemed a given: He’s running for re-election.

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This came amid scuttlebutt that he was being pressured not to run by influential Republicans and a rumor just over a week ago that his exit from the race was imminent.

“I am 100% running for re-election and with continued support from those in my district and the full endorsement of the Republican Party of San Diego County,” Hunter said in a statement on Jan. 11. “I have run every race with full effort because my constituents deserve no less and this time is no different.”

This came on the same day as a report out of Washington that said Rep. Darrell Issa was considering running in Hunter’s largely East County district.

The previous day, Issa said he would not run for re-election in his district straddling San Diego and Orange counties.That announcement came the same day the Union-Tribune reported a federal grand jury in San Diego was involved in the ongoing investigation into Hunter’s personal use of campaign funds and had subpoenaed at least one witness.

No wonder Hunter wanted to make it clear where he stood.

He has always maintained he did nothing wrong — other than his campaign making an honest mistake that was corrected. So maybe he doesn’t believe an indictment or worse is coming down, and he’s confident he’ll be re-elected as always.

Not everybody is so sure. The federal investigation has been going on at least since last March and there have been signs it has expanded beyond the personal use of campaign money.

Meanwhile, a recent telephone survey has been conducted in Hunter’s district putting him in matchups with well-known hypothetical candidates, according to Indivisible San Diego, a group formed to oppose Trump’s agenda that has targeted Issa and Hunter.

A member of the group was called by the survey and asked whom she would support: Hunter, Issa, radio talk-show host Carl DeMaio, state Sen Joel Anderson or retired Navy SEAL Josh Butner, the only Democrat mentioned who’s running against Hunter.

The survey also asked how she felt about the accusations against Hunter and whether he should be investigated, and if she believed the Department of Justice was on a witch hunt. She said she was asked if Hunter should seek re-election. Finally, she was asked who she would vote for among various combinations of three candidates.

It was unclear who commissioned the survey.

With the candidate-filing deadline less than two months away, there are scenarios being played out among Republicans to keep Hunter’s 50th district in the GOP column should things go south for him.

Something could happen (indictment, particularly damning evidence surfacing, GOP pressure) before the deadline that makes Hunter change his mind about running. That could open it up for people like Issa, Anderson, former assemblyman/current Santee Councilman Brian Jones and others — though Issa’s profile and campaign fund could squeeze out some if not all of the competition.

While Issa’s prospects were dim in his own 49th district, Hunter’s more heavily Republican 50th might be safer ground.

(DeMaio would be a consideration, but he’s also possibly in the hunt for Issa’s seat.)

But should the feds close in, Hunter’s office could be his best bargaining chip, so there may be little incentive to give it up without a fight.

Then there’s the politically uncomfortable possibility — seemingly a long shot — that another name Republican would enter the race as a fail-safe, even with Hunter on the ballot. That would be a tough conversation: Duncan, I’ve supported you. Honest. But just in case you don’t make it there, consider me a friendly back up. No offense.

It’s a district Republicans shouldn’t lose, but then early in 2016 nobody thought Issa could lose and he came within a hair of being voted out of office.

The only other Republican running is Andrew Zelt, a sergeant in the county Sheriff’s Department. In addition to Butner, former Labor Department spokesman Ammar Campa-Najjar is among the Democrats who have announced.

If nothing changes, they would be Hunter’s main competition on the ballot. One of them likely would be the next congressman from East County if he goes down before November.

Here’s a date to keep an eye on: March 9, the filing deadline for congressional and legislative seats.

If an incumbent doesn’t file, the deadline is extended to March 14.

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Bill Kristol‏ (@BillKristol), editor at large at the Weekly Standard

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